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Oscar Predictions 2002 March 23, 2003 |
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Barbara Walters has cancelled and the red carpet won’t be as glamorous; it’s wartime folks, but the show will go on. According to Academy officials, despite the war, the Academy Awards 75th annual telecast Sunday night will go off with a show that appears like it’ll be less a party and more a ceremony. The Oscars, like during World War II, will be a subdued affair (maybe), it’ll be an opportunity to still bestow honors on 2002’s best films (hopefully) while possibly being a grounds for celebrity political opinions (hopefully not). Whatever the grounds or background the world finds itself in, it has already been stated that there will indeed be 24 categories awarded winners Sunday night with a special award for lifetime achievement to Peter O’Toole, who in his most famous, and oddly relevant role as T.E. Lawrence was, if anything, a controversial war figure who looked like a god but played both sides of the fence for personal gratification. For good or for bad, whatever your opinion is about self-congratulatory awards shows during a time of world uncertainty, Hollywood’s biggest night will not be axed. It may be postponed, that has yet to be decided, but for the sake of this column we’ll assume it’s still a go for Sunday night. So like any good film critic worth the No. 2 pencil he writes with, I will dedicate space here to predicting who I think should and who probably will win in the six major races. Best Supporting Actor: Early buzz once had Paul Newman’s performance in “Road to Perdition” as a shoo-in, but this was one of the films few non-technical nominations, so it’s unlikely he’ll get it on being who he is alone. Ed Harris and John C. Reilly showed good strengths in their roles in “The Hours” and “Chicago” respectfully, but ultimately had way too little screen time to merit the Oscar. This looks like a two horse race between Chris Cooper, as orchid swamp rat John Laroche in “Adaptation”, and previous winner in this category for “The Deer Hunter” Christopher Walken in “Catch Me if you Can”. Both are outstanding performances, and critical favorite Cooper is long overdue for this kind of recognition, but Walken steals the show from both Leonardo DiCaprio and Steven Spielberg in ‘Catch Me’, in a sad and nuanced performance. Should win: Walken Will win: Cooper Best Supporting Actress: A category that in the past has been anything but predictable looks pretty cut and run this year. With “Chicago” burning up screen and magazine covers, Catherine Zeta-Jones is the knockout of the five nominated performances. Though if Cooper wins in the supporting actor category, Meryl Streep may upset Zeta-Jones for her role in “Adaptation”, as the two essentially played off each other. Queen Latifah in “Chicago” and Kathy Bates in “About Schmidt” both had scene stealing moments, and Julianne Moore gives arguably “The Hours” best performance but the Academy will most likely honor the pregnant Zeta-Jones, especially after not nominating her for her worthy turn in “Traffic” two years ago. Should and will win: Zeta-Jones Best Actor This years best and toughest competition by far pits four previous winners with a first time nominee in performances that range from courageous (Adrian Brody in “The Pianist”) to over the top brilliance (Daniel Day-Lewis in “Gangs of New York) to sad and revelatory (Michael Caine in “The Quiet American” and Jack Nicholson in “About Schmidt”). The odd man out is Nicolas Cage in a marvelous duel role in “Adaptation”, a role that is so good if he wins he should get two awards, or one with a split personality. Yet, I don’t think he stands a chance, not with the dynamics of Day-Lewis (a previous winner in ’89 for “My Left Foot”) as Bill the Butcher, the most memorable character in Scorsese’s “Gangs of New York” or the poignancy of Academy favorite Nicholson. For evoking Chaplin’s final close up in “City Lights” alone I’d give my vote to Nicholson, if I had one. Should win: Nicholson Will win: Day-Lewis Best Actress: Salma Hayek in “Frida” and Diane Lane in “Unfaithful” can be tossed out immediately for being in luke warm films that hardly anybody would remember if it weren’t for their performances. I’d love to see Julianne Moore (heartbreaking in “Far From Heaven”) walk away with a long overdue Oscar, though buzz would have it that it’ll go to either Nicole Kidman, channeling Virginia Woolf’s nose and mood swings in “The Hours” or Renee Zellweger dreaming in song and dance on death row in “Chicago”. Personally, I think Zellweger is upstaged by her co-star Catherine Zeta-Jones, and the Academy would just love to see Kidman (a runner up last year), one of Hollywood’s most beautiful actresses, on stage accepting with presumably little to say about the war. Should win: Moore Will win: Kidman Best Director: Short and sweet; Martin Scorsese, for pulling together a 30 year dream project, a potential mess, with “Gangs of New York” and turning it into a coherent, if flawed, bloody epic. “Chicago” director Rob Marshall won the Directors Guild award, which usually leads to the Oscar, and the film was a major accomplishment for a first time director, but many feel it’s time to honor Marty. Yes, technically it’ll be for “Gangs of New York” but most likely there will be a hint of regret over “Raging Bull” and “Goodfellas”, two films he should have won for. Should and will win: Scorsese Best Picture: Five superb pictures, it’s hard to choose. I’ve gone on record as saying “Chicago” was the best and most entertaining film of the year, and with 13 nominations it appears the Academy agrees with me. “The Hours” may have a shot at an upset, or maybe if the messy Polanski situation doesn’t ruin its chances, the holocaust drama “The Pianist” (which has been heavily awarded in Europe) may prevail. But seeing how the American Academy, like the American government, doesn’t take much stock in what Europeans have to say these days, the ultra cynical, ultra American musical will undoubtedly rule the night. Should and will win: Chicago Six categories and six educated predictions, but don’t hold it against me if I’m off the mark, it’s been known to happen. That’s all that is left to do is escape from war coverage for the four hour extravaganza, and hope that for the sake of subtlety it stays about the movies, and doesn’t turn into celebrity night at the U.N. by Adam Suraf |