Emmy Award Predictions
September 21, 2003
A sure sign that the fall TV season is upon us is the annual hair-pulling extravaganza known as the Emmy Awards. Not as glamorous as the Oscars, but a step up from the Golden Globes, the Emmy Awards, bestowing gold plated trophies on supposedly the best television has to offer, likes to ring in the new with a large helping of the old. Tonight’s broadcast (Fox, 8 p.m.) has some major competition locally with the ESPN broadcast of the important Buffalo/Miami game (go Bills!!!), but like anybody with equal parts interest in sports and entertainment, the gloriously handy picture in picture (PIP) button on my remote will be working overtime.
It’s hard to get too excited over the Emmy’s, as they are usually tediously long and boring and more often than not the deserving nominee’s are overlooked for old favorites. Granted, most awards shows run long on excitement and heavy on inane chit chat, but a good host can go a long way, as we saw last year when the Emmy’s landed the funniest man on television, Conan O’Brien, to host and open with an inspired spoof on the played out Osbourne’s. So you’d think the Academy would go back to Conan for sole hosting duties, but instead we’ll have to put up with 12 (including O’Brien, thankfully) separate hosts, the likes of which include Jon Stewart, Dennis Miller, and Ellen DeGeneres, who did a bang-up job two years ago after much debate about the appropriateness of a self congratulatory awards show in the wake of 9/11. I don’t have a problem with 12 hosts, as long as they’re funny, but with one host a show can move with a smooth flow (think Bob Hope or Johnny Carson and not David Letterman on the Oscars) while multiple hosts can lead to a disjointed experience.
But disjointed is, after all, what this years nominations were. Painfully repetitive, the Academy opted to lavishly decorate nominations on old and tired shows (“The West Wing”, “Will & Grace”) while, inexcusably, overlooking some of the best television of all time (“Boomtown”, “The Wire”, “King of Queens”, “Andy Richter Controls The Universe”). I mean, a group that will award Michael Richards (as good as he was as Cosmo Kramer) three statues while never awarding Jason Alexander, whose George Costanza has increasingly become “Seinfeld’s” classic character, and a group who have never honored John Mahoney (nominated again this year) for a show they’ve consistently awarded Best Comedy Series (“Frasier”) has some wild inconsistencies to say the least.
However, that being said, it is a major awards show, and all griping aside, the following are my picks of who will, and who should, win in the ten major comedy and drama categories.
COMEDY:
Supporting Actress: The supporting categories are always tough to pick because the characters are often overshadowed (as in the movies, and in especially underwritten series’) by top billing, but the five women in this category are all unique, stand-alone portrayals. Megan Mullally (“Will & Grace”) has won before, as has Doris Roberts as Ray’s loving, nosey mother on “Everybody Loves Raymond”, while Kim Cattrall’s Samantha Jones has become tired and unusually predictable this year on “Sex and the City”, though her co-star, Cynthia Nixon is overdue for a win as workaholic single mom, and TIVO addict Miranda Hobbes. But this prize belongs to first time nominee Cheryl Hines, who plays Larry David’s long agonized wife on HBO’s hilarious hit “Curb Your Enthusiasm”.
Will and should win: Cheryl Hines
Supporting Actor: A category with a weird six nominees (apparently two had the same amount of votes, so they just put both on the ballot instead of knocking them off together in lieu of four), and while I feel Mahoney has long deserved the win (he’s often lost to the more acerbic wit of David Hyde Pierce’s Niles) as Martin Crane, it appears that the decline of “Frasier” as must see TV means he’ll stay an Emmy bachelor. Ditto “Malcolm in the Middle’s” Bryan Cranston, who, along with Jane Kaczmarek, have been snubbed time and again as the boys’ stressed out parents. If this year plays out to a ‘Raymond sweep (it’s never won Best Comedy) than expect Peter Boyle, the only star of the show without a win, to make complete a perfectly golden cast.
Will win: Peter Boyle
Should win: Boyle and Mahoney
Best Actress: This category is tricky, seeing how Jennifer Aniston finally won last year (though was snubbed for an Oscar nod for her fine turn in “The Good Girl”) during Rachel’s pregnancy on “Friends”, while last season she had a less showy plotline as a girl with a crush. The Academy could look to bestow Sarah Jessica Parker another win for the final year of “Sex in the City” (though it may be eligible again next year) but, playing the ‘Raymond card, two-time winner Patricia Heaton, marvelous as Ray’s devoted, cynical wife (especially in a classic episode when the two sparred over who would balk over unpacking a long dormant luggage bag) could find another statute for her mantle.
Will win: Jennifer Aniston
Should win: Patricia Heaton
Actor: Another strange six-man category, but this one is a no-brainer. As Adrian Monk on USA’s wonderfully funny, crafty and poignant “Monk”, Tony Shalhoub, week and week, whether solving a murder mystery at a playboy bunny mansion or at a circus, or reminiscing over his much loved deceased wife, gives the years best performance, period.
Will and should win: Tony Shalhoub
Best Comedy Series: Seeing how the deserving “Monk” was overlooked in this category, in favor of previous winners “Sex in the City” and “Will & Grace”, the best comedy this year is David’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm”, which brings his crazy, show-about-nothing “Seinfeld” format to HBO and modern day Los Angeles and lands guest stars like Shaquille O’Neal, Richard Lewis, and Ted Danson, who winningly gets on Larry’s bad side every time they tango.
Will win: Everybody Loved Raymond
Should win: Curb Your Enthusiasm
DRAMA:
Supporting Actress: Comedy is fun and all, but everybody likes the Drama races better, and this year, save for the cluttering of past ‘West Wing winners, the races are good and unpredictable. For supporting actress there was a lot of buzz around “Alias” nominee Lena Olin, but the show, while a cult hit and critical darling, failed to garner a nomination in the Best Drama category, thus showing the Academy’s little respect for it. If Stockard Channing wins again for her miniscule role as “The West Wing’s” first lady, I’m going to flip, but ultimately, I feel this year is going to be ruled by HBO’s great “Six Feet Under”.
Will win: Rachel Griffiths, as the mentally confused Brenda on ‘Six Feet.
Should win: Olin, based purely on speculation and critical acclaim, I don’t even watch “Alias”, but probably should.
Supporting Actor: Two gangsters (Michael Imperioli, Joe Pantoliano of “The Sopranos”), two politicians (Bradley Whitford, John Spenser, “The West Wing”), and a spy’s father (Victor Garber, “Alias”).
Will and should win: Joe Pantoliano, by a head.
Actress: Perhaps the most interesting of all the main categories, it’ll be a shock if they follow through on favoritism and award Allison Janney, of “The West Wing” another trophy, while Frances Conroy of “Six Feet Under” and Marg Helgenberger of “CSI” seem out of the loop. This one will ultimately be a battle between the fresh-faced Jennifer Garner (“Alias”) and the stern and tortured Edie Falco, as Tony Soprano’s recently separated wife on HBO’s mob masterpiece.
Will and should win: Edie Falco, if only for the brilliantly acted finale.
Actor: If Falco wins than expect James Gandolfini to follow suit for his equally compelling performance in last year’s tame (by ‘Sopranos standards) swansong. If not, than this baby is pure Bauer, Jack Bauer that is, or shall I say Kiefer Sutherland as Jack Bauer, super counter terrorism agent extraordinaire on Fox’s best series, “24”. It’s a close one, Peter Krause of “Six Feet Under”, off the hinge as Nate Fisher, has as good a chance as Gandolfini or Sutherland, but essentially, Bauer’s time, all 24 hours of it, has come.
Will: Peter Krause
Should: Kiefer Sutherland
Best Drama Series: After all of the hubbub, 12 hosts, awkward teleprompter banter and surely a John Ritter tribute piece, this is what it all comes down to. We’ll kick out “The West Wing” immediately, as well as “CSI” (popular, but not Emmy material). “The Sopranos” is unbelievably overdue (remember the groundbreaking first season losing to the tired courtroom dramatics of “The Practice”? I’m still bitter over that one) and “Six Feet Under” is a finely crafted show, but in a category that should have been an easy win for “Boomtown”, I’d say the second best network show on TV, “24” deserves it the most. I know some will say it is implausible, and that Kim Bauer is needlessly accident prone (her cougar happenstance is already a camp classic) but the shear excitement of watching Bauer track down, literally, a ticking time bomb, to avert a war in the Middle East (sound timely?) is what a lazy evening in front of the television set is all about. So, as the Bills wrap up (hopefully) a brilliant 3-0 start, the Emmy’s will coincide thusly:
Will win: “Six Feet Under”
Should win: “24”
by Adam Suraf