2006 Emmy Predictions
August 25, 2006
Faithful readers of mine were probably wondering why I failed to review the Emmy nominations when they came out earlier this summer, but even more faithful readers probably came to the conclusion that my ever festering hatred for the Television Academy of Arts and Sciences finally reached a boiling point with this year’s bogus list of nominees and I just couldn’t put into words, without breaking a few decency laws, the anger and confusion I was feeling at the time. Now, with the awards telecast finally here, Sunday night on NBC, I have calmed down a little over the obvious inconsistencies with the nomination process, but not enough to spare the reader a couple of angry observations as I count down the top races of the evening and make my annual predictions of who should, and who will win in their respective categories. That most of the actual “should win” shows and actors aren’t even nominated is a moot point, for I, like every other critic in the land, ultimately has to swallow this list as a historical document in the spotty history of the Emmy awards, and use it as a reference guide for choosing who will walk away with what has become one of the least prestigious awards statuettes in the entertainment landscape. For sure it’s better than a People’s Choice award, but that Golden Globe is looking mighty glorious about now.
Supporting Actress, Comedy: One of the most notable snubs of the year was the Academy’s spiteful ignorance of the actresses on “Desperate Housewives”, including the show’s funniest actress, Eva Longoria, whose bombshell looks and whip smart attitude combined to make her character one of the highlights of a much maligned second season. She’d be the favorite in this category, but as it is, she’s absent, but Alfre Woodard, whose story line was about as “comedic” as a dying seagull, is somehow included in this list, but smart voters will see that despite a good performance, she’s out of place alongside “My Name is Earl’s” hilariously trashy Jaime Pressly, and “Curb Your Enthusiasm’s” Cheryl Hines, who should score sympathy votes for having to put up with both Larry David on ‘Curb’ and Robin Williams in the bafflingly big screen hit “RV”. I’ll hurt myself with a dull object if Megan Mullally wins again for a tired “Will & Grace” show that received more nods than it deserved, but I think Pressly’s breakthrough performance will be deservedly rewarded.
Should and Will Win: Jaime Pressly, “My Name is Earl”
Supporting Actor, Comedy: This is one of the few categories where I have hardly any complaints, though once again Sean Hayes from “Will & Grace” seems painfully out of touch next to such nominees as Jeremy Piven of “Entourage” and Will Arnett’s Gob on the agonizingly missed “Arrested Development”. Arnett’s performance on ‘AD’, the perfect counterpoint to Jason Bateman’s stoic family leader, is a thing of anarchic beauty, with his idiotic magic tricks and insecure sense of self importance, but fellow nominee, and multiple loser Bryan Cranston will split the vote with his equally self-destructive performance on the similarly cancelled “Malcolm in the Middle”, leaving Piven and first time nominee Jon Cryer (“Two and a Half Men”) to battle it out, barring a sympathy win for previous winner Hayes. Piven’s super-agent on “Entourage” is certainly the most culturally famous of the two, considering Cryer is simply just another straight man on an otherwise nominal studio comedy, and since he deserved it last year when he didn’t win, this year Piven should be gold.
Should Win: Will Arnett, “Arrested Development”
Will Win: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage”
Supporting Actress, Drama: This is a category I know very little about, for of the five nominees I only regularly watch Jean Smart as the mentally fragile first lady on “24”, so my vote would be tinted with bias, but given the strength of Smart’s amazing performance on Fox’s best show, I wouldn’t be happier if she were to win, it would be much deserved. Of the rest, Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson may split the “Grey’s Anatomy” vote, though Oh’s loss last year may give her an edge, and last year’s surprise winner, “Huff’s” Blythe Danner, may get counterfeited by an even newer surprise old timer, Candice Bergen of “Boston Legal”, who has won her fair share of these things in the past. Ultimately, the popularity of “Grey’s Anatomy” may win out on poor Mrs. Logan and her truly awful day of marital hell.
Should Win: Jean Smart, “24”
Will Win: Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy”
Supporting Actor, Drama: Now we start getting into the categories where the Academy really blew it, for who in their right minds, having actually seen and studied the performances, would choose Oliver Platt in the little seen “Huff”, or the tiring William Shatner of “Boston Legal” over such mesmerizing performances like “Lost’s” two mystical mavericks Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje and Terry O’Quinn, and all-time great mysterious bad guy Michael Emerson, “House’s” cynical brainiac Omar Epps, who faced death in the season’s most gripping two-parter, or “The Shield’s” ridiculously talented Forrest Whitaker, whose confrontations with Michael Chicklis (also unjustly snubbed) was the most dynamic rivalry on TV this year. Of the actual nominees, like Smart, “24’s” brilliant Gregory Itzin had an amazing season as the duplicitous, sadly pathetic President Logan, and if Smart wins Itzin will surely win too, for their performances perfectly complement each other, but in a year of nostalgic final nominations, this may be the year Alan Alda is rewarded for his work as the loser in “The West Wing’s” presidential election. Frankly, I don’t know how you nominate Alda without also nominating his screen adversary Jimmy Smits, but that’s the Academy for you, riddled with inconsistencies, and if Alda wins he should at least thank Smits, because Vinick’s gracious loss wouldn’t have been so compelling had it not been for Santos’ charismatic heroism in victory.
Should Win: Gregory Itzin, “24”
Will Win: Alan Alda, “The West Wing”
Best Actress, Comedy: This is the worst category of the night, and honestly, I could care less who actually wins the award. It’s nice that Julia Louis-Dreyfus has finally found an audience, post “Seinfeld”, with “The New Adventures of Old Christine”, and that Lisa Kudrow and Stockard Channing were both recognized for shows (“The Comeback”, “Out of Practice”, respectively) that a collective 19 people actually watched, but do any three of them really deserve to be called the best comedic actress on all of television? Marcia Cross and Felicity Huffman can do more with one raised eyebrow or self contented smirk than any of these nominated actresses can do with their entire bag of tricks, not that they’re personally not gifted actresses, but it just seems like we’re now throwing darts at headshots and whichever one gets the most hits ultimately gets the nod, while deserving performances are spitefully ignored. I don’t know, for old times sake give it to Dreyfus, we still remember how hilarious her Elaine Benes was for all those years on the legendary “Seinfeld”.
Should Win: None, unless write in votes for Marcia Cross count.
Will Win: Julia Louise-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”
Best Actor, Comedy: The biggest question mark with the comedy category this year is whether the Academy will reward NBC’s ever-improved “The Office” over more established fare like “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Arrested Development”. We’ll get the answer to that question with this category if Steve Carrell can parlay his painfully awkward, and downright hilarious performance as boss Michael Scott into his first Emmy victory over the previously rewarded, and equally gifted Tony Shalhoub of “Monk”. I can forgive a few of the snubs here – Bateman, Zach Braff (“Scrubs”), Jason Lee (“My Name is Earl”) – for the inclusion, finally, of Kevin James, whose Doug Heffernan on “The King of Queens” is a modern day Ralph Cramden, but the nod may just be a sign that James is becoming a bigger star (thanks to big screen work in “Hitch”, “Barnyard”, “Monster House”, and next year’s Adam Sandler comedy “I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry”), and not because his performance this year was any different than the seven previous un-nominated years. In the end, Mr. Scott and Mr. Heffernan will ultimately lose out, again, to Tony Shalhoub and his brilliant brokenhearted detective Mr. Monk.
Should Win: Steve Carrell, “The Office”
Will Win: Tony Shalhoub, “Monk”
Best Actress, Drama: Another hideously boring Best Actress category, this time with previous winner Allison Janney of “The West Wing” going against four less than thrilling performances by Frances Conroy (“Six Feet Under”), Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”), Geena Davis (“Commander in Chief”), and Kyra Sedgwick (“The Closer”). Do any of these five performances have the emotion, depth, or shear sturdiness of Edie Falco’s Carmela Soprano on “The Sopranos”? I didn’t think so. If I have to pick, I’d go with Sedgwick, who seems to get positive notices for her USA show that has a strong core audience, but for nostalgic purposes only, why not reward Conroy, who was always rock solid as Ruth Fisher on HBO’s departed funeral home drama, and in the final season had to deal with a bratty daughter, a crazy husband, and the death of her eldest son. In an otherwise weak category, Conroy’s victory would be some kind of reprieve for an Academy that strains terribly, and finally incorrectly, in singling out the best female performances on TV.
Should Win: Frances Conroy, “Six Feet Under”
Will Win: Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”
Best Actor, Drama: The single most baffling non-nomination of this year’s wealth of snubs is the unforgivable omission of Hugh Laurie as Best Actor of the year for his series defining performance as Dr. House on Fox’s second best show, and Best Drama nominee “House”. How do you nominate a medical series named after a character who is in practically every scene without nominating the character himself? There are other significant snubs in this category, from “The Shield’s” Michael Chicklis and James Gandolfini of “The Sopranos” (again, “The Sopranos” without Tony Soprano is nothing), to “Lost’s” Matthew Fox, but Laurie’s absence is the most confusing, and further illustrates just how out of touch the Emmy voters are in their nomination process. As for the real nominees, Martin Sheen hardly deserved to be nominated in a lead category given his diminished role in the last season of “The West Wing” (even non-nominee Bradley Whitford had a bigger role and he would have been nominated in the supporting category), and just because his character died in the finale season doesn’t mean “Six Feet Under’s” Peter Krause needs to be here, leaving Dennis Leary of “Rescue Me”, Christopher Meloni of “Law & Order, Special Victims Unit”, and the always reliable Keifer Sutherland of “24” as the logical front-runners. Meloni doesn’t seem to have much of an edge being on a routine cop show that in fact is just another spin-off of another aging cop show, and Leary, a critic’s favorite, may suffer from his show being on F/X, a station that doesn’t seem to do too well with the Academy (except for the lone year Chicklis won for “The Shield”), leaving us with Sutherland, who by now should already have an Emmy for four seasons of grueling work as TV’s most infamous CTU agent, Jack Bauer. “24” had arguably its best season last year, and it’s a testament to Sutherland’s performance that no matter how many bad guys he kills, or rules he breaks to get the job done, after five years it all stills seems exciting and original. In a tougher category it would be a toss-up, but in this year’s weak list, Sutherland is a step taller than the rest.
Should and Will Win: Keifer Sutherland, “24”.
Best Comedy: This year’s list of comedy series features one previous winner that was unjustly cancelled by its network, two unconventional, improvisational one-camera series that use awkward and uncomfortable social situations as its thesis for basic comedy, one medical comedy that is heads and tails the most surreal comedy on television, and one conventional network comedy that most assumed would be the heir apparent to “Everybody Loves Raymond” as the best three-camera comedy on television. Whether “Two and a Half Men” actually deserves that title remains to be seen, or whether it will be rewarded with Emmys the way ‘Raymond’ was in it’s later years, but one thing is for sure, next to “Arrested Development”, “The Office”, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”, and “Scrubs”, it’s the creative lightweight of the bunch. If the voters decide to stick it to Fox for canceling the funniest show on TV, they’ll give their highest honor to “Arrested Development”, but something tells me that this may be the year for Larry David’s long overdue HBO masterpiece to win it’s first Best Comedy Emmy, even though the fifth season was arguably the weakest in it’s run to date. That said, if they go for “The Office”, which saw ratings improve paired with the popular, but somehow un-nominated “My Name is Earl”, it’ll be a coup for Steve Carrell’s bunch of paper company misfits who seemed to barely escape an uneven first season with their fictional lives. Either way, as long as ‘Men’ doesn’t win, one of these funny shows will be deserving of the award.
Should Win: “Arrested Development”
Will Win: “The Office”
Best Drama: Well, this is the biggest category of the night, and usually the one I’m most excited about, but this year I’m kind of boycotting it out of anger that last year’s winner, and by far the best drama on television, “Lost”, failed to receive the nod this year. What was so different about season two that it doesn’t even receive a nomination following a first season where it takes the cake as best in show? Talk about inconsistencies, this is equivalent to snubbing Hugh Laurie but still nominating the show he dominates, only this one seems crueler because there was no drop off in quality from season one to season two, if anything, the show got deeper and more complex with the addition of the Dharma Initiative and all the baggage it brought to our confused castaways. As is, the rest of the field I could take or leave, but I’m pulling for “24” to defeat the popular “Grey’s Anatomy”, simply because Jack Bauer and his insanely entertaining day of murder, mayhem, and political conspiracies just seems more weighty and prescient than a bunch of pretty doctors and their relationship problems. I know people love “Grey’s Anatomy”, but I’d rather see the final season of “The West Wing”, or the penultimate season of “The Sopranos”, both of which compare unfavorably to their earlier triumphs, win than see ABC’s mushy medical series take Emmy’s biggest honor. Of course I have no say in the matter, if I did “Lost” would be the odds on favorite, so in a year of wild inconsistencies and major disappointments in the nomination process, why should the final award of the night be any different than the rest when dealing with the watered down version of what once was a meaningful industry honor.
Should Win: “24”
Will Win: “Grey’s Anatomy”
by Adam Suraf