2005 Emmy Award Predictions
September 14, 2005
Well what do you know, it’s September, the ring of school bells is in the air, football is in full swing, birds are chirping their last chirp before the cold, cats are napping their last sidewalk nap before the freeze, the Mets are falling to pieces, as usual, Hollywood is slowly recovering from a dismal summer, and, alas, the Emmy Awards are on tonight. Of those various occurrences, most of them are tolerable in my eyes, though the painful collapse of my poor Mets is typically excruciating, but those pesky Emmy Awards, they come around every September, getting my hopes up that some of the best shows on television will be awarded deserving gold statuettes, and then they kill me. Each year I tell myself to stop caring, that the Academy will never change, that they will nominate the good stuff, and then just reward the tired old stuff, but why should I give up on the television Academy if the sometimes equally dodgy motion picture Academy is allowed to escape criticism because of the history factor?
I like the Emmy’s, and I like bashing the Emmy’s, but a part of me cries out in anger when I have to bash the Emmy’s, because for once I want it to be a clean happy sweep, where “The West Wing” and “Will & Grace” get shut down in the categories they don’t deserve to be in in the first place, and “Arrested Development” and “Lost” take the cake, leaving a few spots for those overexposed housewives who, despite the overexposure, did produce a fabulously entertaining first year of deliciously warm and funny satire for ABC. If all else fails, and things go as they usually do, I’ll be stewing in my own hatred by the end of the night, but if, by some strange miracle, these following ten picks come up roses, spurring not only a welcome awards night, but possibly, by some cosmic fluke where the planets all align in my favor, a glorious late season Mets comeback, than we’ll let bygones be bygones, welcoming the much maligned Academy back into our hearts, until next September, when they shatter my dreams all over again. Here are my laboriously scrutinized choices for who will and should win the top ten awards in the Comedy and Drama categories in tonight’s broadcast.
Supporting Actress, Comedy: With the new season starting, it already seems like ages ago since “Everybody Loves Raymond” went off the air, but really it’s only been a few months, which means the classic-happy Academy could get all nostalgic on us and shower the dearly departed series with awards it’s already won in the past. Such could be the case with this category, where Barone family matriarch Doris Roberts is a likely candidate for the same performance she gives every year, the overbearing mother with a heart of gold, and a tongue of sly wit and acid. The inclusion of “Arrested Development’s” similarly overbearing mother Jessica Walter is great, and the exclusion of Eva Longoria in favor of the tired Megan Mullally is not, but I don’t see any surprises in this, the weakest of the major ten categories.
Should Win: Jessica Walter, “Arrested Development”
Will Win: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond”
Supporting Actor, Comedy: Sticking with the ‘Ray’ nostalgia, Peter Boyle has remarkably never won this award, losing constantly to either his TV son, fellow nominee Brad Garrett, or “Frasier’s” oft-crowned David Hyde Pierce. A win will be justification for nine seasons of solid work as the cranky, sometimes surprisingly sweet Frank Barone. A warning though, Boyle’s win will be well deserved, but let’s all agree that “Entourage’s” Jeremy Piven also deserves this gold, and his performance this season should carry over to a win next year, as well as many more nominations for HBO’s funny buddy comedy.
Should and Will Win: Peter Boyle, “Everybody Loves Raymond”
Supporting Actress, Drama: This is a strange category filled with first time nominees and obvious snubs, the greatest being a complete lack of female representation from “Lost”, as if the show’s heavy father-son themes were so confrontational and overwhelming that the women’s back stories got misplaced in the shuffle. Scratch off previous winner Stockard Channing of “The West Wing”, she’s hardly even on screen anymore, and any of the odd nominations for Showtime’s “Huff” (here represented by Blythe Danner) are only for show, so the sexy pick would be “Grey’s Anatomy’s” Sandra Oh, if only for the “Sideways” sympathy vote, though C.C.H. Pounder is mesmerizing on the male dominated “The Shield” and richly deserves this award.
Should Win: C.C.H. Pounder, “The Shield”
Will Win: Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy”
Supporting Actor, Drama: One of the reasons I thought “The West Wing” was actually better last year was because of the addition of the two new presidential candidates, played to perfection by TV vets Jimmy Smits and Alan Alda. Smits is conspicuously absent here, but previous winner Alda is alive and well, and with a new biography on shelves, not to mention a fresh-in-the-mind Oscar nod for “The Aviator”, his fictional republican campaign should be good for at least one victory. That said, watch episode four, “Walkabout” on the new “Lost” DVD, and honestly try to tell me that Terry O’Quinn doesn’t deserve the win for his brilliant work as John Locke, the spiritually replenished hunter, and former box factory loser, on ABC’s hit drama. There are other great male performances on the show that deserved nominations, including Dominic Monaghan, Daniel Dae Kim, and Josh Holloway, but Locke’s story was the first great attention grabber, and still ranks as the best of an inspired 24-episode season.
Should Win: Terry O’Quinn, “Lost”
Will Win: Alan Alda, “The West Wing”
Actress, Comedy: This category is a battle between a woman who has never won, despite many nominations (“Malcolm in the Middle’s” Jane Kaczmarek), a woman who has numerous wins (“Everybody Loves Raymond’s” Patricia Heaton), and three new kids on the block from the famed Wisteria Lane. Early in the season Teri Hatcher was the lock, but then Felicity Huffman’s character obtained an addiction to pills, and Marcia Cross’ character lost her husband, but remember that this is a comedy category, so Hatcher’s slapstick pratfalls and goofy, charming performance should prevail.
Should and Will Win: Teri Hatcher, “Desperate Housewives”
Actor, Comedy: This is a tough race to predict, but it’s probably safe to toss out Ray Romano and Eric McCormack, the two weakest performances of the five nominated. “Monk’s” Tony Shalhoub has won before, and his defective detective has rebounded wonderfully from a down season, which makes him the favorite, and “Scrubs’” Zach Braff probably only got recognized because his movie “Garden State” was a hit, though he does anchor NBC’s best comedy, so the nomination is deserving, but the Academy will get this one right and make up for the snub last year, crowning “Arrested Development’s” Jason Bateman for the only slightly sane character on Fox’s loony masterpiece. If not, a win for Braff of Shalhoub wouldn’t be totally bad either.
Should and Will Win: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development”
Actress, Drama: There’s nothing the TV Academy loves more than giving out its awards to noted film stars slumming it on the boob tube, and this category features a powerful performance by oft-Oscar nominated actress Glenn Close for her one year only stint on FX’s otherwise Emmy ignored “The Shield”. If the nostalgia factor kicks in for the defunct “Six Feet Under”, Francis Conroy might upset for her past two seasons dealing with a crackpot of a husband and many, many deaths, but seriously, nobody expects anybody but Close to walk away with this thing.
Should and Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Shield”
Actor, Drama: “Boston Legal’s” James Spader won this award last year and I thought that was a one year fluke, so cross him off, as well as Hank Azaria in the little seen “Huff”. Kiefer Sutherland had another riveting year on “24”, so he could be the dark horse, but this one will probably come down to two towering, genre-defining performance- Hugh Laurie as the brilliant, rare-disease doctor on “House” and Ian McShane as the brutally vulgar tyrant Al Swearengen on HBO’s great anti-western “Deadwood”. The decision is tough, but the snub of a much deserving Matthew Fox for his important performance as “Lost’s” primary heroic figure makes it a bit easier, so tossing a coin, I’d go with McShane, primarily for the early episodes of the season where he sweated and cursed his way through debilitating kidney stones. Dr. House is constantly in pain as well, and British actor Laurie’s American accent is equally as good as the Irish McShane’s western bark, and “House” does benefit from a much larger audience, so it’s still anybodies guess, but that’s a cop out, so for the sake of it, my gut wants McShane, but Dr. House is a one-of-a-kind character, and Laurie’s performance is hard to ignore.
Should Win: Ian McShane, “Deadwood”
Will Win: Hugh Laurie, “House”
Comedy Series: I need not ridicule the Academy any more for the ridiculous 15 nominations for the past-its-prime “Will & Grace”, because it doesn’t stand a chance here, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy race to predict. Last year’s champ “Arrested Development” had an even better season than the first, and there’s always that nostalgia thing going for “Everybody Loves Raymond”, but the phenomenon of the year was “Desperate Housewives”, and for good reasons, though I’m a bit afraid the show is more of a dramatic comedy, rather than a pure slapstick comedy, like “Arrested Development”. If the Academy follows the rules, and doesn’t care about pure comedy, than ‘Housewives’ is a no-brainer, but if they’re looking for the “funniest” show on television, nothing beats the ratings-challenged “Arrested Development” for perfectly inspired lunacy.
Should Win: “Arrested Development”
Will Win: “Desperate Housewives”
Drama Series: This is the big dog, and also the one that gives me the most anxiety, for the Academy has a tendency to ruin the entire night by giving this one away to the least deserving show, and the inclusion of the over-awarded ‘West Wing’ scares me a little. “24” is still amazing, but it’s likely to be one of those shows that’s constantly nominated but never rewarded, and “Six Feet Under” is the odd man out, limping in over more deserving series like “The Shield”, “House”, and “The Wire”, which is usually TV’s best show when it’s on. So that leaves us with “Deadwood”, the gritty, fascinating study of the American west in all it’s muddy glory, and “Lost”, the best action-adventure series since, well, maybe ever. I’m currently knee deep in the impressive first season DVD and I’m continually amazed at how emotional and deeply personal the show’s flashbacks are, while never detracting from the adventure and mystery of the island stories. It’s implausible and highly stylized, while “Deadwood” is realistic and grungy, which definitely isn’t a bad thing, but “Lost” was the breakout hit of a memorable TV season, and it not winning Best Drama would be a travesty, one I’d not likely forgive any time soon.
Should and Will Win: “Lost”
by Adam Suraf