2004 Oscar Predictions
February 25, 2005
2004 officially ends tonight with the reading of the Academy Awards, a gala event designed solely to show off clothes, diamonds, egos, makeup, glamorous stars, and, I guess, a few movies. This year the field is varied and unpredictable, with five films nominated for Best Picture that may likely fail to produce a 100 million dollar earner, the first field of nominees to fail such a test in twenty years. No matter, even though we have no “Titanic” or ‘Return of the King’ on the ballot this year, we do have some interesting races to look forward to, and a new host that will likely pull no punches in his opening monologue, a grueling ten minutes that can turn even David Letterman into a nervous dud. With the sometimes annoying Chris Rock at the mike, tonight’s broadcast should be anything but dull- in the beginning anyway, once it tops three hours, we’ll revise that statement- and with, essentially, three strong films battling for the top prize of 2004, I’d expect anything is possible. Except Best Actor going to Paul Giamatti, as much as that should happen, it’s an impossibility. But enough spilled milk, let’s take a look at this year’s tight field of contenders, but before the Big Six, there are a few interesting B-categories that could shape up to be intriguing filler between montages, music performances, and the big categories everybody cares about.
The biggest of the non-acting and directing categories are the two screenplay awards, where films often neglected in the Big Six come to shine. Such an example this year is “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”, a wild and poignant romantic fantasy that is missing from the Picture and Actor (Jim Carrey) categories it deserved. Feeling the shame of such an omission, the Academy will see fit to make amends by giving the talented Charlie Kaufman his first Oscar for Original Screenplay, though if the night goes in favor of “The Aviator”, John Logan’s decades-spanning, phobia-friendly Howard Hughes tome may attract enough votes. But I doubt it. For some reason, Richard Linklater’s conversation-happy “Before Sunset” is nominated in the Adapted Screenplay category, where it will undoubtedly get ignored for either Paul Haggis’ wrenching, narration-filled “Million Dollar Baby”, or more likely, Jim Taylor and Alexander Payne’s beautifully funny and sad “Sideways”. Taylor and Payne, like Kaufman, are respected writers with previous nominations, yet no wins, but tonight is their night, and rightfully so. Both acclaimed scripts, differing takes on human relationships, were indeed the best of the year.
For Best Animated Feature, “Shrek 2”, and the forgettable “Shark Tale” stand little to no chance against Brad Bird’s colorful, red-tinted superhero satire “The Incredibles”. Had Mamoru Ishii’s “Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence” been nominated like it should have, this category could possibly garner more respect, but overlooking such a visionary piece of Japanese animation, for the slapstick antics of “Finding Nemo’s” lame second cousin, “Shark Tale”, is an omission I can’t look past. The respect I had for this weak category two years ago when “Spirited Away” won has long since past. Now, why doesn’t the Academy start treating animation right, and nominate such worthy films, like “Shrek”, “Finding Nemo”, and “The Incredibles” in the Best Picture category, and abolish this low rent substitute. In better races, I can see a healthy Morgan Spurlock accepting the documentary prize for his fast food expose, “Super Size Me”, and though oft-nominated Robert Richardson is the favorite to win Best Cinematography for his skilled work on “The Aviator”, a nod to first timer Zhao Xiaoding’s mesmerizing color photography in “House of Flying Daggers” would make up for the films lack of any other nomination. With cinematography covered, everything else is best left to the show, so, without further interruption, here are my thoughts on how the top six will play out tonight.
Best Supporting Actress: Of the five actresses nominated in this category, only Cate Blanchett’s role in “The Aviator” could be deemed flashy. And how. As Katherine Hepburn- stuffy New England accent and all- Blanchett got beneath the famous persona to create a character sympathetic to her difficult boyfriend, and witty to the public, yet vulnerable away from the press cameras. The safe bet, then, would be Blanchett, but don’t count out “Closer” star Natalie Portman for her sexy, adult role as a controlling temptress, or my pick, Virginia Madsen, whose performance as Giamatti’s love interest in “Sideways” gave the film its tender emotional core. If “Sideways” hasn’t peeked too early, than Madsen’s star-turn is ready to be uncorked and celebrated.
Will and Should Win: Virginia Madsen, “Sideways”.
Best Supporting Actor: Much like Madsen, Thomas Hayden Church was plucked out of virtual obscurity by Alexander Payne to play Jack, the soon-to-be married failed TV actor who is on one last bender in wine country with his college best friend. Taking some self reflexivity as motivation, Church’s Jack was more than just a womanizing frat boy out for a final stab at youthful glory before marriage, but the loosely wound Ying to Giamatti’s decaying, depressive Yang. The two make “Sideways” the best buddy road comedy in years, and if Giamatti is to be the sacrificial Oscar lamb, than Church should be its benefactor. If not, than look for oft-nominated, never rewarded favorite Morgan Freeman to take the cake as an philosophic ex-boxer in “Million Dollar Baby”. It’s just the kind of warm, worn down performance the Academy loves from a talented, familiar actor.
Will Win: Morgan Freeman, “Million Dollar Baby”.
Should Win: Thomas Hayden Church, “Sideways”.
Best Actress: Early in the year, I would have picked Kate Winslett in this category for her charming turn in “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”. Then I would have chosen the stunning Catalina Sandino Moreno in “Maria Full of Grace”, for an unsparing performance as a drug mule. Then Imelda Staunton’s heartbreaking performance in Mike Leigh’s “Vera Drake” would have bested both of them for sheer power, screen time, and facial fragility. I haven’t seen “Being Julia”, so Annette Bening’s performance remains a mystery to me, but lets face it, Hilary Swank has won before, and her performance as Clint Eastwood surrogate daughter boxer in “Million Dollar Baby” is simply amazing, on two levels, given the dramatic plot turn. I’d be shocked to see anybody else win Best Actress this year.
Will and Should Win: Hilary Swank, “Million Dollar Baby”.
Best Actor: In a lesser year, not only would Paul Giamatti be the front-runner here, but he’d have equally strong competition from ‘Eternal Sunshine’s’ Jim Carrey, “Kinsey’s” Liam Neeson, “The Sea Inside’s” Javier Bardem, and “The Assassination of Richard Nixon’s” Sean Penn. As it stands, none of those performances made the cut, with the Academy opting instead for Johnny Depp’s kind “Finding Neverland” stage writer, and Clint Eastwood’s sad, grizzled “Million Dollar Baby” role. Fine performances all, ditto to Leo in “The Aviator” and Don Cheadle in “Hotel Rwanda”, but everybody knows this is the year of Ray Charles, and Jamie Foxx’s uncanny imitation is the stuff Oscar is made of. It doesn’t hurt that the music is good too.
Will and Should Win: Jaime Foxx, “Ray”.
Best Director: Nobody can actually vouch for this, but after I saw “Election” for the first time in 1999, I swore one day Alexander Payne would win a Best Director Oscar. He hasn’t yet, and though “Sideways” was the critics’ choice, he’s up against two much this year, two legends to be exact. With skilled professionalism, Clint Eastwood turned a boxing drama into the most gut wrenching film of the year, and the fact that he’s won this award before doesn’t mean he’ll be forgotten- if anything, it means the Academy likes what they see from the 74-year-old director. But I think this is finally the year Martin Scorsese bags that elusive golden man, for portraying a reclusive broken man. “The Aviator” lives and breathes Hollywood lore, and if anybody knows Hollywood history, it’s the film buff from the Lower East Side, who grew up on the films “The Aviator” pays homage to with its unique color palate and design. In a career that should have at least four of these awards, maybe this is the year he finally gets his first.
Will and Should Win: Martin Scorsese, “The Aviator”.
Best Picture: Much debated, if not much seen, this is the tightest race of the night, and it just happens to be the biggest. I fear the critically hailed “Sideways” has lost steam, and has felt some backlash from audiences who purposefully love to hate on what the perceived snobbish critics slobber on. Owen Gleiberman calling the film the best romantic comedy since “Annie Hall” in Entertainment Weekly, is only one example of how usually reserved critics have gone slightly overboard in their praise of Payne’s lovely film. “Ray” and “Finding Neverland” are out of their league, and “The Aviator”, though a technically daring epic, may have to settle for Director only, since some feel it comes up short in the emotional category, unlike “Titanic” or ‘Return of the King’. That leaves us with the surging “Million Dollar Baby”, a film that is likely to benefit more from the right wing controversy than it would from Roger Ebert’s continuous, somewhat overbearing, support of Eastwood’s marvelous movie. Of the five, the only one I’ve seen three times is “Sideways”, and it gets better every time, and that’s really saying something for a film that is some kind of a masterwork the first time around. I won’t cringe when “Million Dollar Baby” wins Best Picture, but sit back with a glass of Pinot Noir, toasting Eastwood, and secretly wishing Jack and Miles’ wine country revelation had made it just a little bit further.
Will Win: “Million Dollar Baby”.
Should Win: “Sideways”.
by Adam Suraf