2004 Emmy Predictions
September 14, 2004
So, here we are in the early stages of fall; school is back in session, the leaves are turning red and orange, Halloween candy is already on the shelves, the pathetic Mets are 25 games out of first, the Bills are losing games on last second plays, and the Emmy Awards are upon us. Yes, nothing spells fall quite like a three and a half hour awards telecast that, more often than not, is a tedious affair filled with familiarity and just plain bad choices. Yet, rather than use this space as a springboard to badmouthing the Academy (that’s getting old already), and wax cynical about how utterly reprehensible it will be if “The West Wing” wins a fifth straight Best Drama award (shudder at the thought), I’d rather spend the time praising the truly worthy nominees (there are a few), and predict why they won’t, or, in a twist of fate, why they will, take home the statue tonight.
Before getting to the ten major choices in the comedy and drama categories, there are a few notable B categories that look interesting this year. It shouldn’t take a genius to predict a complete sweep in the Miniseries categories for Mike Nichols’ sprawling, 6-hour drama “Angels in America”, which was, indeed, as good as all of the critics suggested it was. About as sure as sure can get, Meryl Streep will pad her trophy mantel with Best Actress for her multiple character performance, which included, of all things, a brilliant makeup job as an 80-year-old Rabbi, while Al Pacino’s AIDS ridden Roy Cohn should be a lock as well. Mary-Louise Parker will continue the dominance in the Supporting Actress category, while Supporting Actor (of the four talented men up against “Stealing Sinatra’s” William H. Macy) will likely go to Jeffrey Wright, but don’t be surprised if Justin Kirk, as the ailing, abandoned Prior, upsets for what (especially now available on DVD) has become, in general consensus, the breakthrough performance of the film. In smaller races, I’d love to see the hilarious, almost bitterly too popular “Chapelle’s Show” take Best Variety (which usually goes to a tired Letterman show), and fans of Donald Trump (Who are you anyway? And why are there so many of you?) will rejoice when “The Apprentice” takes Best Reality Program, over the annoying “American Idol”, and my favorite, and still one of the very few reality shows I can stand, “Survivor”. But, lets face it, nobody really likes sitting through these lesser categories, what we like are the big ten, the debatable comedy and drama races, which, we can hope, will be a changing of the guard from the previous year’s stale winners.
Best Supporting Actress Comedy:
Let’s start with this category just to get it out of the way, because it is the weakest of the night. Instead of nominating Cheryl Hines of “Curb Your Enthusiasm”, or the good-enough-to-win Jessica Walter of “Arrested Development”, we’re stuck with the three supporting ladies of “Sex and the City”, the boring antics of “Will & Grace’s” Megan Mullally, and the likable, previous winner, Doris Roberts from “Everybody Loves Raymond”, who basically gives the same performance every season. Of the ‘Sex’ girls, I always liked Miranda the best, just because she was the most realistic of Carrie’s friends, so in a vote of sympathy, it should go to her, but everybody loves Marie, except Frank, but he doesn’t count here, so expect a repeat.
Will Win: Doris Robert
Should Win: Cynthia Nixon
Best Supporting Actor Comedy:
I could make a case for every actor in this category, except for Sean Hayes, because I can’t stand “Will & Grace” anymore. David Hyde Pierce had a good final year as Niles on “Frasier”, but he’s won already, and so has ‘Raymond’s’ Brad Garret, so in a perfect world, this award would split between “Arrested Development’s” jailed patriarch Jeffrey Tambor, and another funny, cranky dad, Peter Boyle of “Everybody Loves Raymond”. Any other year I’d give the nod to Boyle, but Tambor’s performance, as the recently converted Jewish prophet behind bars on Fox’s great freshman comedy is too good to resist.
Will Win: Peter Boyle
Should Win: Jeffrey Tambor
Best Supporting Actress Drama:
This is a strong competition category, with the slight edge going to “The Sopranos” distressed diva Drea de Matteo for her thankless performances as the dearly departed Adriana. Who knows, if she wins this, she may have company next year in the comedy category for her funny role as Joey’s sexy sis on the newly minted hit “Joey”. Outside of Ade, the other notable name here is the surprise nod to Robin Weigert for her unforgettable, potty mouth performance on “Deadwood” as a debunked “Calamity” Jane. It’s not the best character on HBO’s superb Western (that would be non-nominee Ian McShane’s Al Swearengen), but in a cast filled with well written female characters, Weigert’s drunken, awkward Jane is a knockout, but give it to Adriana, poor girl, for putting up with Christopher, and all of his mood swings.
Will and Should Win: Drea
de Matteo
Best Supporting Actor Drama:
Boy, aren’t the supporting categories this year more interesting than the lead categories? This here is another strong list, with “The Sopranos” once again coming a step ahead of “Deadwood”. Steve Buscemi was a great addition to the mob show as Tony Soprano’s recently paroled, screw up cousin (who met a similar fate as Adriana), and should have the edge over “Deadwood’s” annoyed, dedicated Doc Brad Dourif, an Oscar nominee 28 years ago for “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest”. In an ideal situation, I’d be predicting “The Wire’s” Chris Bauer in this category, but as it stands, he, along with anyone from that show are conspicuously absent, so, in lieu, Buscemi is still a perfect choice.
Will and Should Win: Steve
Buscemi
Best Actress Comedy:
This one I think is an easy one to pick, considering the Academy has yet to reward Sarah Jessica Parker’s Carrie Bradshaw, and will no longer get the opportunity to after tonight. Is it the best performance of the bunch? Better than Patricia Heaton, Jennifer Aniston, Bonnie Hunt, and Jane Kaczmarek? Well, yes, and despite those terribly annoying Gap ads (where SJP looks slightly, only slightly, more feminine than Lenny Kravitz), Parker is a class act all the way.
Will and Should Win: Sarah
Jessica Parker
Best Actor Comedy:
The sympathy vote here may go to John Ritter, whose tragic death threw a major wrench into the moderate hit “8 Simple Rules…” but I’d rather see Larry David or Tony Shalhoub (last year’s winner) take the cake. Call me insensitive, but an actor shouldn’t win an award because he died mid-season, especially if his performance really wasn’t all that good. There’s something about David that makes me laugh every time I see him (did you catch his priceless cameo on “Entourage” last week?), and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” is due for some Emmy wins. But, the ghost of Jack Tripper prevails.
Will Win: John Ritter
Should Win: Larry David
Best Actress Drama:
Most critics will tell you that Jennifer Garner of “Alias” is overdue in this category, but, I’ll confess, I’ve still never seen the show, so I can’t jump on that bandwagon. Ditto for the cute Amber Tamblyn of “Joan of Arcadia”, so, since I doubt Allison Janney’s luck is good enough for another win here, it’s gotta go to Edie Falco, again, for her dynamite, yet subdued, performance as Carmela on “The Sopranos”, even if she finally gave into that big oaf of a husband and let him back home.
Will and Should Win: Edie
Falco
Best Actor Drama:
The oddball in this category, despite good notices, is James Spader’s creepy lawyer on “The Practice”, and since the Academy seems to show little love for Jack Bauer and his hectic, sleepless days chasing viruses from Mexico to Los Angeles, than I doubt “24’s” Kiefer Sutherland will prevail. Which leaves the talented Anthony LaPaglia of “Without a Trace”, the President (Martin Sheen, not GWB, though he deserves an Emmy for the way he’s suddenly kicking the snot out of John Kerry for virtually no reason, in the face of intense global criticism), and the Don, James Gandolfini, as the bear-like Tony S. If I’m right, and I think I will be, this year is finally the year “The Sopranos” sweeps the major drama categories, and what would the show be without it’s conflicted boss?
Will Win: James Gandolfini
Should Win: Kiefer Sutherland
Best Comedy Series:
Well, in a year that saw the end of perennial nominees “Friends” and “Frasier” exit stage left, with neither up for the granddaddy of comedy series trophies, and since “Everybody Loves Raymond” will still have another year to compete, this category is surprisingly tough to predict. The best odds go to the gals of “Sex and the City”, and all of their happy endings, and good for them, but seriously, are there two funnier shows on TV than “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Arrested Development”? I don’t think so (well, maybe “King of Queens”, but that never gets Emmy recognition whatsoever), and since this is a category supposedly designed to reward the show with the highest belly laugh quotient (I believe it’s a 3:1 ratio of hits to misses), it would be a wonderful surprise to see the actual funniest of the five win. But…
Will Win: “Sex and the City”
Should Win: “Arrested Development”
Best Drama Series:
This is where, in a meaner spirit, I’d tear into the Academy for their blind love of the sinking (in more ways than one) ‘West Wing’, but a kinder, less sarcastic me would rather like to finish on a peaceful note, so, considering that two of my favorite shows (“The Wire”, and the badly missed “Boomtown”) never make this category, and another, “24”, never wins, than I have to go with the classic that has yet to win this ultimate pat on the back, David Chase’s “The Sopranos”, coming off its best year since season two. With Tony and Carmela back together, Meadow engaged, and Johnny Sac in the can, the season ended surrealistically happy, played out to a swell Van Morrison tune, so in honor of said high spirits, I say, let us share the sentiment, and give ‘em all a much deserved accolade, in the form of one five pound statuette.
Will and Should Win: “The
Sopranos”