2003 Oscar Predictions
February 24, 2004
You would think that by the time the Academy Awards roll around each year we’d be sick to death of awards shows. This year was especially taxing because each show was so close together, I mean, seriously, how many times can somebody actually watch Renee Zellweger and Charlize Theron fake astonishment when their names are inevitably called? It all starts with the Golden Globes, which NBC likes to dub “the party of the year”, or something like that, but is more like a three-hour sit in a waiting room filled with drunk celebrities accepting meaningless statues from a group of journalists (the Hollywood Foreign Press) that nobody seems to care about. If you can honestly tell me if there is a worse awards show (barring the Peoples Choice Awards) than the Golden Globes, I’ll summarily eat my shoe in shame. Following the Globes, of course, are the Oscar nominations, which come as a reprieve, until the prestigious, yet equally tiresome Screen Actors Guild Awards, which were last Sunday, and are the final odds shaker before the big one, tonight’s much speculated Academy Awards (Channel 7, 8 p.m.).
A good question that could be asked is, why do we care so much about the Oscars, what amount to the umpteenth awards ceremony of the year? This year especially there appears to be no real surprises in store, and haven’t we already heard the speeches and seen the equivalent of the dresses? So, what’s all the hubbub, Bub? Well, it’s quite simple, the Oscar is the gold standard; when a script is initially green lit a producer thinks of two things, bankability and its chances at the Academy Awards, which this year are celebrating their 76th edition. It’s like the World Series, plus the Super Bowl, minus the Stanley Cup, divided by the Olympic Gold; everybody wants one, and don’t we just love to see the bald Adonis in the hands of a deserving recipient? I do, and with any luck, and if all of those previous awards shows indicate anything, this year we will see some long overdue wins for some truly terrific film work. So, we cross our fingers for our favorites, secretly hope for some controversy (what’s an Oscar night without it?), forget for a few quality hours about all of the wretched reality TV that hogs the television airways on any other night, and fall into the fairytale land that is Hollywood congratulating itself, the rich awarding the richer. And frankly, who would have it any other way?
Before I get into the big six categories this year, there are a few noteworthy possibilities I’d like to see. Given that most of the technical awards will go to either “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” or “Master and Commander”, I’m hoping that “City of God” camera maestro Cesar Charlone snags Best Cinematography for his dazzling work in the Brazilian slums, though if “Seabiscuit’s” John Schwartzman were to win for his stunning and well composed horse race sequences, that’ll be fine. Fine too, and I think inevitable, will be a much-deserved Best Animated Feature for Pixar’s “Finding Nemo”, in a category that gets it right every year. If Errol Morris wins Best Documentary (remarkably, the master has never even been nominated) for his smart and savvy war film “The Fog of War”, he’ll owe some thanks to the candid frankness of his subject, Vietnam architect Robert S. McNamara, but I’m going with Andrew Jarecki’s Long Island family mystery “Capturing the Friedmans”, a film you just can’t stop talking about after you see it, and the recently released 2-disk DVD may be the most thorough documentary DVD of all time, only adding to the experience.
I’m pulling for Robert Pulcini and Shari Springer Berman to take Adapted Screenplay for “American Splendor”, a great American bio-pic badly misrepresented in the nominations (ditto similar overlooked art house gems “The Station Agent” and “The Girl With the Pearl Earring”), and I’m afraid if Sofia Coppola is going to go home with anything, it’s going to be for Best Original Screenplay, for her breakout hit “Lost in Translation”. There are plenty of juicy scenarios to mull over, and I’m sure a bit of controversy (will Sean Penn rail against Bush in his acceptance speech, ala Michael Moore?), even following a week of ridiculous frenzy over Mel Gibson’s “The Passion of the Christ”, but, all things as they are, and all betting aside (seriously, I don’t condone wagering on the Oscars), here is how the ball will bounce in the big six.
Best Supporting Actress:
If you’ve been hip to Letterman recently, than you know that he’s been obsessed with Renee Zellweger’s voice as Ruby in “Cold Mountain” (like always, a bit he’s summarily run into the comedic graveyard) and judging by other awards shows, so has everybody else. It’s a fine, over-the-top performance, but arguably the worse of the five nominated. “House of Sand and Fog” matriarch Shohreh Aghdashloo, a wonderful Iranian actress, would appear to have the best shot at an upset, and if Marcia Gay Harden were to win for “Mystic River”, it would be the second year in a row that a full term pregnant actress (Catherine Zeta Jones, “Chicago”, last year) would have to waddle on stage in her maternity dress. But, if Miramax has any voting sway left for its forgotten Civil War epic, than Renee is a lock.
Should Win: Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Best Supporting Actor:
This here is what we call a diverse category. You have a Japanese TV star nominated for his first major role (Ken Watanabe, “The Last Samurai”), an African previously known for Spielberg’s uneven “Amistad” (Djimon Hounsou, “In America”), an underrated vet (Alec Baldwin as the ruthless old-school casino boss in “The Cooler”), a previous winner (Benicio Del Toro, “21 Grahams”), and the best of the five, Tim Robbins as the tortured and tragically misunderstood Dave Boyle, the most compelling character to Dennis Lehane’s great novel, “Mystic River”. This one should be a no-brainer.
Should and
Will Win: Tim Robbins, Mystic
River
Best Actress:
Remember before when I said so calmly that I’d eat my shoe if somebody could prove to me a worse three-hour award show than the Golden Globes? Well, I’ll gladly serve up the other one if Charlize Theron somehow doesn’t win this award for her scary transformation into Florida serial killer Aileen Wuornos in “Monster”. How I would love to see 13-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes win for her emotional star-turn in “Whale Rider”, but I’m pretty safe to assume that, after tonight, my Chuck Con’s will be staying put.
Should and
Will Win: Charlize Theron,
Monster
Best Actor:
The ladies are cut and run this year, but the men (the years strongest category) in the Best Actor race are anything but. In a normal year, Ben Kingsley’s masterful performance in “House of Sand and Fog” would rule, but he’s an underdog tonight. The SAG awards threw a wrench into the race and gave their booty to Johnny Depp’s wildly funny Captain Jack Sparrow for “Pirates of the Caribbean”, but, the obvious choices seem to be “Mystic River’s” Sean Penn, an actor who should already have an Oscar (“Dead Man Walking”), and Bill Murray, whose Bob Harris in “Lost in Translation” was the role of a lifetime. Watching Murray deadpan through language barriers and bond with should-have-been-nominated Scarlett Johansson is to watch a seasoned comedian suddenly find the fine line between subtlety and pathos, but, that being said, Penn’s gripping porch balcony scene with Robbins alone should net both of them their first Oscars.
Should Win: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Will Win: Sean Penn, Mystic River
Best Director and Best
Picture:
Now is the time, seeing how its actors were overlooked (once again), to gush about Peter Jackson and his unusual triumph with “The Lord of the Rings”. For three years now the movie season has been salvaged by another ‘Rings film, one better than the other, and this years installment, “The Return of the King” was a sweeping epic, complete with world-ending battles, soul-searing conflicts, and complications on several romantic fronts, not to mention a CGI character (Gollum) that is more human than most actual human performances ever get. The anticipation for middle December the past three years has been so severe that next December will undoubtedly be a letdown; if there is such a thing as Hobbit withdrawal, it’ll be diagnosed then, but thanks to ingenious special DVD editions, the trilogy seems to have its swords firmly planted in the grounds of film history.
Last year, the Academy had a bit of a surprise up their collective sleeves when they gave Roman Polanski Best Director over Scorsese and “Chicago’s” Rob Marshall, and though Clint Eastwood’s “Mystic River” was one of the best fiction mystery adaptations of the past ten years (“L.A. Confidential” was better, also adapted by Oscar winner Brian Helgeland), the only veteran in the category tonight to never have won the award is 3-time loser Peter Weir, whose “Master and Commander” is a great boat epic. Sofia Coppola became only the third women ever to garner a nod for Best Director, and Fernando Meireles’s inclusion for “City of God” came of nowhere, and though I like “Seabiscuit” more now, thanks to a well-received special DVD edition, than I did in the fall, it’s still the weakest of the five Best Picture nominees; a win for either three would be a major upset. So, barring anything of the kind, the precious will finally belong to Jackson and his criminally enjoyable fantasy masterpiece, and to echo the farewell words of Carrie Bradshaw, that’s just fabulous.
Should and Will Win: Peter Jackson and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
by Adam Suraf